Pakistan, Afghanistan among
20 countries at risk of excessive rainfall
Over 42 countries to live with dry weather conditions and thus increase more poor

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations says the El Niño oceanographic phenomenon forecast will return in June 2023, following three years of La Niña and thus is expected to bring dry weather conditions in around 42 countries and excessive rainfall and possible flooding in over 20 countries including Pakistan.
The forecast, says the FAO report, suggests dry weather conditions in key cropping areas of Central America, Southern Africa, and Far East Asia, while excessive rainfall and possible flooding are foreseen in Near East Asia and East Africa.
In other words, as many as 42 countries will be at risk of dry conditions and may face drought and 20 countries are at risk of excessive rainfall.
The El Niño oceanographic phenomenon is a key driver of extreme weather events that pose high risks to global food security.
Already in 2022, the number of people facing acute food insecurity was projected to reach up to 222 million in 53 countries/territories, the highest level on record according to the latest Hunger Hotspots report, the UN body writes.
“The world experienced a third consecutive La Niña event in 2022 and early 2023, a rare occurrence that has happened only twice since 1950. La Niña events are commonly associated with wetter conditions in Australia and drier conditions in the United States of America, South America, and East Africa. Reflecting these typical weather patterns, widespread flooding occurred in Australia where also bumper wheat outputs were recorded in 2021 and 2022, while drought conditions curbed wheat and maize yields in the United States of America as well as in Near East Asian countries.”
According to the report, weather forecasts point to a transition to an El Niño state in the second half of 2023 and the rainfall patterns during El Niño events tend to be the reverse of La Niña.
This report primarily focuses on dry weather conditions, considering the significant impact that water stress has on agricultural production and that a larger area of cropland is affected by rainfall deficits compared to areas expected to receive above-normal precipitation.
“The analysis examines cereal crops, given their high share of calories in total food consumption, notably in low-income countries, and, therefore, their importance for food security. There are, in addition, hazards associated with El Niño-induced wetter conditions, primarily floods, and areas with a high likelihood of excessive rainfall are also mapped.”
The report says several countries in those regions expected to remain dry are currently suffering from economic instability, due to low economic growth, unsustainable debt levels, and foreign exchange shortages, which have contributed to high inflation rates.
In the event of an agriculture production shock, this economic instability could pose challenges for countries to increase needed imports.
It further says wetter conditions are normally conducive for agricultural production, excessive rainfall amounts raise the risk of flooding, with potentially negative repercussions for the agriculture sector through damage and losses of crops. Even without triggering floods, excessively humid conditions often raise the likelihood of an increased prevalence of crop pests and weeds, as well as outbreaks of crop and animal diseases.
The identification of croplands most susceptible to El Niño effects is intended to support preparedness and response planning to minimize the negative impacts on agriculture and food security. The inclusion of the cropping calendars is to provide additional guidance on the type of support that would be most suitable for these countries. Preparing for El Niño FAO has developed Anticipatory Action (AA) standard procedures to be followed in most countries at risk of being affected by El Niño in 2023/24, where food security is a major concern. For instance, there are active AA protocols in Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger, Madagascar, Malawi, Zimbabwe, the Philippines, Pakistan, and Central American countries. In addition, FAO is ready to implement agricultural and livelihood-based interventions, in coordination with governments and humanitarian partners, should the El Niño forecast materialize.