Island mode is the only solution for power system issues: Engr. Tanveer Jafri Combined power losses of 37 pc can be minimized; what is required is will, says head of Jafri & Associates

Pakistan’s power woes can be addressed and of course, there is a solution to the issues connected to electricity and its tariff, says Engr. Tanveer Ahmed Jafri. ‘We as consultants have been presenting remedies for the issues at all forums.’ There is a solution available but what is required is the will, he adds.
Elaborating on the issue in an interview with Engineering Review, he says before electricity reaches our homes, there are three stages; generation, transmission, and, distribution. There is a myth that a hundred percent generation can be ensured through renewable energy. But no country in the world including the US, North America, Western Europe, Germany, or China has been able to achieve it. There are abundant renewable power projects in these countries but they are intermittent sources of energy. One cannot asses the availability of sources of wind power, solar, or hydropower. If the installed capacity of a solar project is 100 megawatts, you cannot get more than 22 percent generation of the capacity. Wind will give you 34 percent and hydro 45 percent on a yearly average generation. You cannot avail full capacity of the project. Instead, nuclear, gas, oil, and coal are considered base load projects. In Pakistan, oil and gas are imported, nuclear is available but with very low capacity, and the coal for which we reimburse equity with foreign mining investors. Thar coal is the source on which we can begin localization. However, there is a shortcoming of Thar Coal because being lignite its transportation and storage on a large scale is an issue. We are running these projects on optimal levels.
Once we had WAPDA with General Manager Thermal who was acquainted with the complete power network in Pakistan. Following the unbundling of WAPDA, we formed generation companies, DISCOs and NTDC, and down to CPPA. To regulate them, we have an organization called NEPRA. Now NPCC—part of NTDC—decides the flows for each DISCO’s in the country. Now when we generate power, we are required to transmit it and then distribute it down. For instance, if we want to transmit power to Hyderabad and the dispatch from Mangla is cheaper the cost of the transmission losses is being borne by the consumer. If we include distribution losses, the combined losses stand at 37 percent. This loss is to be minimized.
In recent years, Pakistan has witnessed power blackouts quite often because our system is linear and thus cascaded and if any fault occurs at any point, all our system comes to a shutdown.
Given this situation, the question is what should be done so that the stability of the grid is ensured and also the losses could be minimized. We have powerhouses at the load centers and more should be built there besides building rings so that they continue running in an island mode if any fault develops anywhere in the country. With this model, transmission losses would come down to almost zero or a negligible level. For instance, two coal-fired power projects, connected to the national grid may be given to K-electric which will get 900 megawatts. Since these are IPPs and work in different modes that are cheaper for NTDC, it benefits NTDC because the power acquired in this model is cheaper for the company.
In many parts of the world, large companies have a buyer that buys electricity, water gas, etc., and focuses the prices assessing the cost at the end user. This is the economic model of electricity which is successful in the world because it is consumer-centric.
Pakistan does not have a consumer-centric policy. Neither NTDC nor IPPS not staging protests or burning electric bills; the customers do it of course as they are frustrated. Is there anything to address their issue?
If someone uses a generator for a few hours or installs solar power panels, he/she will not bear transmission losses but if they get power from outside they have to pay on account of such losses. It is not necessarily because of any inefficiency, it is an inherent loss as the energy dissipates in the form of heat. These transmission losses are included in the tariff and all companies claim it in their cases with NEPRA. Likewise, Gen companies and distribution companies claim money for such losses. Therefore, if all power load centers were given supply to their respective areas or cities, these losses would be minimized and thus affect the tariff.
Would not this model create disparity in the availability of electricity in the country? Engr. Jafri says it will not create disparity. For instance, cities like Karachi which has a 20-plus population around the world have a capacity of one to one and half lakh megawatts to match the development activity of that city. We have 2 to 3 thousand megawatts in Karachi. We are energy energy-deficient country. For instance, we should have planned where to build a powerhouse to address excess power in any city for the area.
We have prepared our future power plan but unfortunately, this aspect is missing as to where the powerhouses are set up. Location is very important in the power field like it is in real estate.
Power is expensive in Pakistan no doubt and given such a landscape, does the industry approach you as to how to deal with this issue or seek any solutions?
The industry is in a state of influx as the companies are making losses because of the increase in operational costs which embeds such utilities as critical commodities.
While our industry faces issues concerning electricity, water, and gas, we have technologies to tackle them and the industry should move to get benefit from such technologies. But it is like burning the candle from both ends. If any industry has plans to get a return of 20 percent in 5 years besides dealing with many headaches. They think if they invest that money in the banks they can get such a return without any issues. They ask why they should set themselves up for so many issues of running the industry.
The people are looking for utilities for big projects like in the construction sector and they approach us for ideas. We float ideas with the investors too so that they can benefit from them. But the issue is that new technologies cannot be developed locally, they are required to be imported, and they cannot do it.
Why should not such technologies be developed locally? ‘Consumers should be offered additional benefits so that they are encouraged to buy Pakistan-made things, ‘ Engr. Jaffri says. Also, you cannot levy extra duties lest the WTO comes into action. If you sell any local solution, you will be asked if anyone has acquired it before. Then we have to show the certifications and also have to offer considerable tax rebates to make it acceptable. The buyer should be offered incentives so that even if they have any doubts about the reliability, they look at the low-cost effect.
Do you see any wider acceptability for the use of Pakistan-made products in the wake of difficulty in import because of the difficult economic situation?
The people are ready to use Pakistan-made products provided they are locally made in a real sense. We don’t have proper certification of the projects as we see in the developed world. We need that it proves our testing and trial of the projects made in Pakistan. We need an accrediting organization like CE in Pakistan which assures the buyer that the product is as per international standards.
Tell us how AI is influencing our industry as many people have been afraid of it lately.
It has helped people improve their write-ups as they are using it like a student. In industry, I don’t see much application of AI but I have seen an industry experimenting with opting for microwaves instead of laying down a cable to save cable cost. They are doing it for the first time in Pakistan. They have put data in the AI to get to know how it is possible.
Do the consultants feel threatened by ChatGpt which can be used by anyone and can make drawings?
Yes and no. Designing and drawing is a professional engineering feat; it is stamped by a professional engineer and is a norm all over the world. The rest no matter efficient people are not authorised for consultancy; they don’t have proper licenses from regulatory bodies like PEC etc. – By Mohammad Salahuddin