Let us look forward to the next era of innovation in the HVAC industry. A high-level look at advancements in air conditioning and the underlying societal forces that motivated progress reveals much about humans. Initially, comfort drove change. The first intervention used fire for heat as well as cooking and protection. Next, fans were used to cool through convection and evaporation if humans were perspiring.
The first mechanical air conditioner from the early 1900s sent air through water-cooled coils. This was not invented to provide human comfort. Rather, it was designed to control humidity around a printing press to improve the image quality. The same entrepreneurial engineer subsequently invented the centrifugal chiller, adding a central compressor to reduce a unit’s size. By the 1960s, air conditioning units were found in many homes. While several religious groups objected to this degree of comfort, protesting that it wasn’t “God-like,” the desire for comfort prevailed.
As air conditioning use soared, the 1970s energy crisis hit. In response, the U.S. Department of Energy created a federal standard for air conditioner manufacturers. This definitively focused the HVAC industry on reducing energy consumption, a goal that continues to guide the management of indoor environments. Today, computerized building management systems that interface with occupancy presence sensors in order to reduce energy waste are high on the list of ASHRAE awards.
The Future of Air Conditioning
Since the 1970s, the overwhelming emphasis in building and mechanical system design and operation has been to keep carbon-based fuel consumption low. While this is critical, the goal of future innovations in HVAC engineering must be driven by another obvious yet largely invisible purpose of buildings.
Buildings exist to shelter humans so that we can reside on earth. This means the truest innovations will advance this purpose. Even though we spend 90% of our time indoors, little is still understood about how indoor conditions and designs affect human physiological health. To date, health-related building management concentrates on eliminating dangerous gases and chemicals — a do-no-harm perspective.
Yet, our indoor environments have the potential to do much more. They have the potential to be spaces that enable people to thrive, not just survive. To achieve this, we must first reveal the most important metrics in real time so that adjustments can be made when necessary.
Wearable Biosensors for Physiology Monitoring
Wearable biosensors provide real-time physiological information measured noninvasively. Many of us already wear devices to track our heart rate, sleep patterns, and activity. We now also have devices that can monitor hormones, natural chemicals, and microbial products in sweat, tears, saliva, and other bodily fluids.
This real-time physiological information can be interfaced with building data and inform us about the best way to manage our indoor environments. Ultimately, these wearable sensors will change the way in which our homes, offices, schools, and health care facilities are designed and managed. Just as precision medicine can bring the best treatment to each individual, personalized indoor environments can optimize the health and performance of everyone and reduce the hundreds of billions of dollars that are lost each year in the U.S. due to illnesses linked to the indoor environment.
If you are forward-thinking, interested in new opportunities, and willing to deviate from existing paths, I advise you to become a data collector. Using wearable biosensors, keep a log of your own heart rate, sleep patterns, and illnesses over the next year. Meanwhile, track the temperature, humidity, particles, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), carbon dioxide levels, and other variables in your home and office. Do you see trends or patterns? If so, how can you manage your building to optimize your own existence? – BY Dr. Stephanie Taylor, President and founder of Building4Health Inc.
Aeroseal Residential
HVAC is everywhere, including buildings, homes, and even vehicles. We often take it for granted, simply turning up the temperature when we’re cold or down when we’re warm. For owners or operators, the HVAC industry has trends that must be taken into account to keep a building healthy.
To discover what is in store for this industry, we must look at emerging technologies, integration, and how local regulations are evolving to get a picture of what to expect in the days and years to come.
The HVAC Industry is Getting a Whole Lot Smarter
Many within the HVAC industry are beginning to automate their sales and service processes, allowing them to cut their customer acquisition costs to keep pricing competitive.
Smarter technologies, such as the use of smartphone apps, allow building managers to control lighting, ventilation, and other processes with one control point.
Better measurements of building environments thanks to the collection and mining of big data and analytic information will allow for more efficient HVAC systems to be installed in the future.
At the local level, HVAC contractors will also be using software, SEO, widgets, and other online tools and strategies to help connect with local customers who are researching their system.
Mobile solutions will continue to drive innovation within the HVAC industry as more potential customers use tablets, smartphones, and tablet PCs.
As HVAC systems continue to develop innovative, but complex, solutions for buildings, consumers are expected to continue turning toward mobile technologies to set up preventative maintenance and service programs.
There will always be a need for the HVAC industry. The real question of the hour is this: how much demand is this industry expected to see year after year? Much of that will depend on how much innovation can be achieved within the industry. As the world continues to globalize, more information than ever before is at the fingertips of consumers. They can research best practices, installation techniques, and they want mobility like never before.
The Relationship Between Construction and HVAC
An increase in new building construction will always provide a similar increase in HVAC unit installations.
In both residential and non-residential, HVAC equipment installation is expected to be on the rise in the coming year.
From 2014 data, the spending on construction projects for non-residential use rose 4.2% from the year before. In 2016, up to 7% growth could occur.
Lodging construction projects with a need for HVAC unit installations saw an increase of 11.3%. Office and commercial construction projects saw increases of 14.7% and 8.4% respectively.
Even sewage disposal construction projects with a need for HVAC components saw an increase of 13.6%.
Residential storage heater shipments have seen increases of over 20% in the past 5 years for total shipments.
Warm air furnace shipments have seen nearly a 23% increase thanks to the increases seen in new construction projects.
Once an HVAC system is installed, it generally needs maintenance only. This creates two unique sectors within the HVAC industry. On one hand, you have the installers who need new construction in order to find the revenues that will keep them in business. On the other hand, you have maintenance and repair personnel who receive an expanded customer base with every new system that is installed. Although the maintenance sector can still thrive when there is limited new construction, the industry as a whole sees a decline and that affects everyone’s revenues. This is why the relationship between the construction and HVAC industries is so critical.
How HVAC Innovations Are Inspiring New Trends
Electronic air cleaners are 40x more efficient than a standard filter you would throw away to remove unwanted particles from the air.
Rightsizing, system updating, and types of refrigerant used can significantly affect HVAC efficiency.
Variable speed heat pumps can help to trim monthly costs by up to 40% for homeowners.
Proper insulation for a home or building on its own can improve HVAC efficiencies by up to 30%.
75% of the utility costs of a home come from the power used for home electronics that are being kept in a “standby” or “off position,” including HVAC equipment.
Heating and air conditioning are two of the three most common expenditures for building owners today.
A properly maintained air conditioning system will last 10-15 years, depending on the manufacturer and if it was properly installed.
Filters must be changed every 2-3 months at a minimum to maintain the efficiency of an HVAC system, which helps to fuel ongoing supportive revenues for the industry.
Ductless HVAC systems could come to represent up to 15% of the total industry revenues in the next 5 years.
Did you know that someone who lives in a home with air conditioning actually loses some of their tolerance for heat? Not that this is necessarily a bad thing, but it does go toward showing the importance of installing and using an innovative HVAC system for comfort purposes. With the average system operating at full efficiencies for 10-15 years, it is up to each owner or operator to find a qualified technician in their area to maintain their system. Otherwise, the cost of a new HVAC system might come around sooner than necessary, and although that’s not a bad thing for industry revenues, it does take money out of your pocket unexpectedly. We always think our HVAC system will be useful, but if we don’t pay attention to new trends, we could be paying a lot more than expected.
The Global HVAC Industry
Analysts’ forecasts said few years back that HVAC equipment market in China to grow at a CAGR of 8.51% through 2019.
The global HVAC industry is expected to have a 4.34% CAGR through 2022. This is expected to generate total revenues of nearly $70 billion in total.
Asia-Pacific continues to be the leading revenue generator in the global HVAC market thanks to the increase in demand for split air conditioners.
Both the mature markets for the HVAC industry and the developing markets have a lot of potential. It’s the new construction opportunities in the mature markets which are fueling new revenues, while in the developing markets, it is innovative products and technician maintenance and/or installation. Although the HVAC market isn’t one of the larger markets in the world today, it is still a solid contributor to local and regional economies and that is why a healthy industry is so important.
HVAC Future Trends
The healthcare industries contribute just over 13% of the total revenues that are collected by the HVAC industry annually.
Manufacturing and industrial applications [10.5%] are just slightly higher than office building applications [10.1%] in terms of HVAC revenues.
When the recession started in late 2007, the HVAC industry took the same hit as the construction industry in the US, but their pain didn’t make the mainstream media as often. The recovery being experienced within the industry is still continuing to build slowly, but at least the industry has come to the point where they have a positive annualized growth since 2008 at this point, even if it is at just 1%. The future looks very bright for the HVAC industry. Hopefully, another recession won’t come along to damage the progress that has been made in recent years. –ERMD
