National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has decided to conduct a hearing on NTDC’s ‘Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2047, on Wednesday (15th July 2020). National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) have designed the project to cover the future horizon of energy for 28 years i.e. 2020 to 2047.
Load forecast and generation capacity expansion and despatch optimization exercises are the two significant progressions on which this generation is composed. Whereas, these processes need statistical and computation efforts and a purposeful made software for more exact results.
However, the planning has been done to meet the demand of 43,820 MW by the year 2030, a generation capacity of 76,391 MW is required. On the other hand, to fulfill the demand of electricity by the year of 2030, the share will also be taken from Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) resources i.e., 10,327 MW of wind and 12,793 MW of solar, respectively.
Whereas, the case of the demand by the year of 03,065 MW by the year 2047, a total of 168,246 MW of nominal generation capacity is required. And 32,948 MW of STs on Thar coal, 4,749 MW of CCGTs and 25,828 MW of OCGTs on RLNG, 55,836 MW of hydro, 1,000 MW of CASA, 913 MW of bagasse, 4,407 MW of nuclear, 5,297 MW of imported coal, 26,921 MW of solar and 10,327 MW of wind-based generation have been made available by the software. A total of 97,080 MW of nominal generation capacity has been optimized by the software during the period 2031-47.
As far as the concern of RLNG-based plants and imported coal-based plants share will decrease, i.e. 26% to 11% in 2025 and then eventually falling to merely 1% beyond 2034 and from 18% in 2020 to only 1% by the year 2047 respectively. Apart from these energy plants the share of wind and solar in the overall energy mix increases from about 3% in 2020 to 23% in 2030.
The end year of the IGCEP (2047) the system will have around 168,200 MW which is right now (2020) 33,000+ MW. A Major increase in the capacity is observed in the hydropower, local coal, VRE and RLNG based plants. New VRE plants are suggested by PLEXOS being a cheaper source of energy. This results in the capacity addition of around 35,762 MW of solar and wind up till 2047. Moreover, the results also show the capacity of 45,929 MW hydropower, 1,562 MW imported coal, 32,345 MW local coal, 27,071 MW RLNG, the 3,177 MW nuclear energy and 654 MW bagasse power plants are selected by the software.
The rate of GDP growth scenario forecast, energy generation in GWh grows at Cumulative Average Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4%, 5%, 5.6%, 6.1% and 4.6% by 2025, 2030, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2047 respectively. Similarly, peak demand in MW grows at CAGR of 4.9%, 5.3%, 5.6%, 6.1% and 4.6% by 2025, 2030, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2047 respectively.
Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB), has decided to RLNG with coal and hydel projects as per the direction of the GOP. Then RLNG can be used in other projects. PPIB also is also show its concern on the period of ICGEP and said that 27 years are too long. CODs of 720 MW Karot HPP and 884 MW Suki Kinari lIPP (both under construction/committed category project) have been mentioned in IGCEP as 2022 and 2023, respectively. PPIB has recently signed agreements for Kohala hydropower project and Patrind hydropower project.
Thar/Local Coal based power project also needs sufficient block allocation in IGCEP as it was financed from International Multilateral Financing Agencies. PPIB also demands that IGCEP should only consider those aspects which are effective and profitable in time-wise and cost-wise.
The KP government has also shown its concerns over IGCEP due to which high level changes in bureaucracy of Power Division were made as the provincial government was unhappy with the plan.
Whereas, Wapda is also not giving so much importance to IGCEP as it is working on three hydropower projects; Dasu, Mohmand and Diamer which are expected to start electricity generation between the year 2024 – 2028 and calling it a real game changer for power division. Chairman Wapda raised the question on the authenticity of IGCEP report and said that civil contract for the Diamer Basha Mega project will be expected to complete in 2028 and the project will generate 4500 MW Power with annual energy of 18097 GWh but the IGCEP 2047 indicated the commissioning of the Project during 2043, which is too far.
The present situation of Pakistan claims that the projects of power evacuation should be completed on an immediate basis specially the projects located in the tough terrain of Northern Areas hardly accessible and having limited flexibility in the narrow transmission corridor.
The government of AJ&K is giving importance to the hydropower option in generating energy and wanted a fast pace in the implementation of these energy projects.
According to IGCEP, it has decided to consult every possible source to improve the energy sector in Pakistan, it also has plans to work on alternative and renewable energy generation targets and promising new technologies in the future of Pakistan.
Whereas, the energy sector needs a very detail planning, which should be revised in every five years. IGCEP should work on reducing the randomness and also trying lessen the risks which will attract the potential investors.
